Global consumer confidence was up during the first quarter of 2015, according to the Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions [1].

While confidence across global regions remained relatively stable in the first quarter, there is considerable variation across different markets,” said Louise Keely, senior vice president, Nielsen, and president, The Demand Institute. “In the first quarter of this year, the key emerging markets of Brazil and Russia saw large declines in confidence for the second consecutive quarter, with the drop in oil prices and the political instability in Brazil. China dropped another index point at the start of this year, which comes after a four-point decline in the previous quarter, reflecting the recent slowdown in GDP there.

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Increased confidence but spending intentions decline

Confidence increased slightly or remained stable in every region except Latin America. For instance, consumer confidence remained steady in North America (106) and increased one point in Asia-Pacific, posting the highest quarterly regional index score of 107. Confidence in the Middle East/Africa (96) and Europe (77) edged up one point in the first quarter, but decreased two points in Latin America (86) - the region’s lowest score since 2011.

However, global discretionary spending intentions declined or remained steady in the first quarter across all lifestyle categories measured. About three-in-10 global respondents (32%) planned to spend on holidays/vacations, new clothes (31%) and out-of-home entertainment (28%), quarterly declines of two, three and two percentage points, respectively.

Global saving intentions, on the other hand, showed a slight increase from fourth-quarter 2014. About half of global respondents planned to bank their spare cash (48%).

U.S. confidence improves as Canadian confidence takes downturn

U.S. consumer confidence increased slightly in the first quarter, mainly driven by increased optimism regarding job prospects, while personal finance sentiment and immediate spending intentions declined.

In Canada, confidence declined to reach the country’s lowest score since 2012.

Some signs of hope in Europe

Europe remained the least optimistic region globally, but there were several signs that green shoots were sprouting. Job confidence rose in 15 of 32 markets, while respondent’s personal financial outlook increased in 18 from fourth-quarter 2014. Confidence for immediate spending intentions, while still comparatively low, increased in 19 markets. Italy and Greece, two of the regions debt-ridden and recession-battered countries, both showed confidence increases of 12-points in the first quarter. Italy’s score of 57 was the highest for the country since 2011, and Greece posted a confidence reading of 65 - its highest level since 2009.

In the region, only Germany (100) and Denmark (106) reached the optimism baseline level. They were also the only two countries in the region where half (50%) of respondents were confident about immediate spending intentions.

Several other countries posted their highest confidence scores in several years: The U.K.’s score of 97 reached the highest level since 2006; Ireland (92) reached its highest since 2008, Spain (67) reached its highest since 2010, and Portugal (59) reached its highest since 2006.

Conversely, ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the Ukraine likely contributed to new confidence lows reported in these countries. Russia’s index fell for the second consecutive quarter to 72, a level lower than its confidence reading at the height of the Great Recession, and the Ukraine’s score dropped 11 points to 41 in the first quarter.