Warnings for the industry continue to multiply: agarwood, Taif roses, Comorian ylang-ylang, and now Egyptian jasmine. Climate disruption is reshaping ecosystems and threatening traditional sources of perfumery’s most prized raw materials.
Fading yields
In recent years, jasmine flower yields in the Nile Delta—an essential supply for leading perfume houses—have sharply declined.
"It’s the heat," said Egyptian jasmine picker Wael Sayed, 45, who has spent nearly a decade working the fields in Shubra Balula, a quiet village about 100 kilometres (60 miles) north of Cairo and a key hub for Egypt’s jasmine industry. As temperatures rise, he said, the flowers bloom less and his daily harvest has dropped from six kilograms to just two or three in the past two years.
In this fertile pocket of the delta, jasmine has sustained thousands of families like Sayed’s for generations, but rising temperatures, prolonged dry spells and climate-driven pests are putting that legacy at risk.
From June to October, families, including children, traditionally head into the fields between midnight and dawn to hand-pick jasmine at peak fragrance. With yields shrinking, some are leaving the trade entirely and those that have stayed now work longer hours.
Too hot to bloom
According to the country’s largest processor, A Fakhry & Co, Egypt produces nearly half the world’s jasmine concrete, a waxy extract from the plant that provides a vital base for fragrances.
In the 1970s, Egypt produced 11 tonnes of jasmine concrete annually, according to the International Federation of Essential Oils and Aroma Trades. Now, A Fakhry & Co says that’s down to 6.5 tonnes.
The region’s jasmine is highly sensitive to heat and humidity, said Karim Elgendy from Carboun Institute, a Dutch climate and energy think tank. "Higher temperatures can disrupt flowering, weaken oil concentration and introduce stress that reduces yield," Elgendy told AFP.
A 2023 report by the International Energy Agency found Egypt’s temperature rose 0.38C per decade (2000–2020), outpacing the global average.
The heat is affecting the strength of the jasmine’s scent, and with it the value of the oil extracted, said Badr Atef, manager of A Fakhry & Co. Meanwhile, pests such as spider mites and leaf worms are thriving in the hotter, drier conditions and compounding the strain.
Alexandre Levet, CEO of the French Fragrance House in Grasse, France’s perfume capital, explained that the industry is facing the effects of climate change globally. "We have dozens of natural ingredients that are already suffering from climate change," he said, explaining that new origins for products have emerged as local climates shift.
Villages at risk
With the Nile Delta also vulnerable to the rising Mediterranean water levels, which affect soil salinity, jasmine farmers are on the front line of a heating planet.
A tonne of flowers yields only 2-3 kilograms of concrete and less than half that in pure essential oil — enough for around 100 perfume bottles. However, Egyptian pickers earn just 105 Egyptian pounds (USD 2) per kilogram.
Egypt’s currency has lost more than two-thirds of its value since 2022, causing inflation to skyrocket and leaving families like Sayed’s scraping by.
Last June, pickers staged a rare strike, demanding 150 pounds per kilogram. But private processors only granted them a modest 10-pound increase.
Every year farmers earn less and less, leading those who can to turn to other activities, while a heating planet threatens the community’s entire livelihood. "Villages like this may lose their viability altogether," Elgendy warned.
